As unbelievable as it may have seemed only a few months ago, Newt Gingrich is now dominating the Republican presidential primary. It is not just that Gingrich is doing very well in the national horse race polling; at almost every level important indicators are looking very good for the Gingrich campaign.
Gingrich currently has an impressive 15 point lead over Mitt Romney in Gallup’s national polling. In addition Gingrich is seen as the most acceptable nominee to a broad section of the base. His favorable number with the base has been steadily growing, while the favorable rating of his main rival, Romney, has been trending downward.
Doing strong in the early states
Besides New Hampshire, where Romney arguably should have a home state advantage, Gingrich appears to be doing as well or even better in the early states than he is doing nationally. The most recent ABC News/Washington Post polling shows him with a 15 point lead over Romney in the Iowa caucus. A Winthtrop poll has him with a 16 point lead in South Carolina. Two polls of Florida last week found Gingrich with leads of 24 and 30 points respectively, and both those polls were taken before Herman Cain suspended his campaign. So Gingrich’s current lead in Florida should be even larger, since Cain’s supporters have tended to migrate to Gingrich.
Supported by those most likely to vote
Beyond Gingrich’s big leads in the national polling and in most of the early states, what is also critical is what groups are supporting Gingrich. The poll internals show even more good news for the Gingrich campaign. Multiple polls indicate that Gingrich is doing especially well among older voters and those who identify as conservatives. These are the groups most likely to turn out to vote in a Republican primary. The ABC News/Washington Post poll also found Gingrich supporters in Iowa are more enthusiastic than Romney’s.
Seen as most electable
Finally, Gingrich even seems to be beating Romney at what should be one of Romney’s core strengths. Both the CBS News/New York Times poll and the ABC News/Washington Post poll found a plurality of Iowa caucus goers think Gingrich stands the best chance of beating President Obama in the general election.
Add in the fact that Romney seems to be unable to break his ceiling of roughly 25 percent support, all the numbers show Gingrich in an incredibly strong position.
Whether Gingrich can maintain these impressive numbers is a good question, but fortunately for him there is less than a month until the voting starts.
